About the 2016 presidential elections

I read a lot , and I try to analyze events objectively. I wrote an answer on June 18 , 2016  on quora.com outlining a general rational method to analyze historical events , and I gave reasons why Donald Trump would be elected president . The link to that answer can be followed by clicking here . I added an update to the answer in November , but the initial publication date can be seen in the answer log .

I also wrote an answer on November 9 , 2016 , reminding of the answer I wrote in June and giving additional explanations concerning my point of view and my ideas.

I will present here the two answers I wrote (with a few unessential modifications) , and part of a third answer I wrote .

Here is the first answer of June 18 , 2016:

First of all , I’d like to point out that I’m not involved in politics and I’m not attached to any political ideology , but I’m going to try to give my (objective and concise) opinion about this topic .

Based upon my many readings and my personal reflections , I think an objective study of historical events can be conducted , and the principles of the scientific method can even be applied to History , if it is done the right way .

I think Trump would be the president of the USA based mainly on two reasons or two notions:

  1. The notion that (along with historical progress and evolution) there are “periodicities” , regularities , and exact correspondences or analogies between (human) historical events over periods of two thousand years or two millennia , which is why I would call them bi-millenary correspondences .
  2. The notion of inversion or transmutation of values , more or less related to Nietzsche’s ideas .

For the first notion , there is an exact correspondence between the Roman emperor Claudius and Trump . According to the Wikipedia article about Claudius (who ruled from 41 to 54 CE) , it was reported that “at one time he expelled the Jews from Rome, probably because the Jews within the city caused continuous disturbances[…]” and the Wikipedia note states : “There is some debate about what actually happened. It is reported by Suetonius and in Acts (18:2), Cassius Dio minimizes the event and Josephus—who was reporting on Jewish events—does not mention it at all. Some scholars hold that it didn’t happen, while others have only a few missionaries expelled for the short term.” This event corresponds to Trump’s call to ban Muslims from the USA .

For the second notion , it is known that Claudius was the first Roman Emperor to be born outside Italy . This is to be contrasted with Trump’s birther ideas or birther issue , insisting that the president should be a natural born citizen of the United States .

These explanations or ideas may seem new or strange or “exotic”, but I think I have a point here .

So we’ll have to wait for the verification of what I have stated above with the unfolding of future events .

Update (November 9, 2016) :

Trump has been elected president. It looks like the unfolding of events has provided an empirical or “experimental” verification of what I had written about five months before the November elections. In fact this answer was written on June 18, 2016.

Here is my second answer , published November 9 , 2016:

I think a statement such as “I told you so” is in order here. I wrote an answer on June 18, 2016 about why Trump would win the November presidential elections. Not that I follow any politician, I’m not attached to any particular political person, political party, or political philosophy.

I presented or outlined a general method based on the proper , correct , and rational analysis of current events and of related specific past historical events (which took place too millennia ago) , and a way to find connections , correspondences and analogies with current events , and to reasonably , objectively anticipate future important events. This method may need more explanations, refinements, or elaborations, but I think it is correct and valid. I’d consider that the unfolding of recent events can be regarded as an empirical or experimental proof or verification of what I had stated earlier in June.

There is no need to refer to the concept of black swan or to similar notions or interpretations, or to say “this is implausible, nobody could have seen or known this”. Randomness and “black swans” are usually a reflection of our ignorance of all the relevant and/or necessary data and facts. The supporters of the winner don’t subscribe to the implausibility or to the black swan narrative and would say that they knew all along he would win the elections. However they represent one side or one of the sides of the issue at hand, so their discourse is not unbiased or dispassionate and is not based on objective and neutral analysis.

I think the impartial , adequate , accurate analysis , study and comparison of historical events and the detection of patterns, regularities , relations and connections between these events can generally help explain the past and also provide insights and valid anticipations of significant future events.

Moreover , The general idea of using scientific methodology (to try to find out who will be the next president for example)  is not the core problem , the essential requirement is to use and apply something such as the rules or principles of the scientific method the right way , and to use the right , correct , accurate , adequate, verifiable methodology .


About the importance or relevance of black swan events in History

Here is a slightly modified reproduction of an answer I wrote at quora.com concerning the black swan theory and black swan events in History.

The Black Swan theory or notion can be sometimes useful but it cannot be reliable or subject to generalization for History.

Explaining (or not being able to explain ) historical events by often relying on the concept of Black Swan can be counterproductive and prevents researchers and thinkers from analyzing objectively and impartially human history in order to find patterns , regularities , and reasonable interpretations in accordance with the principles of the scientific method.

I’ll give an example:
The British had a guy called Oliver Cromwell.Then the French had a guy called Napoleon Bonaparte . Then the Germans had a guy called Hitler. So one could discern a pattern here in the historical succession of great powers.

Another example:
There are many important scientists and scholars but a few have an importance or greatness of the biggest caliber.
The British had a very important scientist called Isaac Newton , then the French had a scientist called Pierre Simon Laplace , then the Germans had a scientist called Albert Einstein ( Einstein was born in Germany , then he lived in Switzerland , then he came back to Germany , then he went to the United States.But in his most productive years he was in the sphere of influence of the German language and of the German culture).

An interesting field for studying history is Cliodynamics, but I think the methods of cliodynamics can also be ameliorated and surpassed.

Certain events might be unexpected for a group of people , but they could be expected and/or predictable for another group of people.

A famous event such as the French Revolution was unexpected and could have been viewed as a Black Swan by the French nobles and aristocrats and by the supporters of the Ancien Régime , but it was expected , anticipated and brought about by the ‘bourgoisie’ , the peasants and the common people in France.The English Civil War or the English Revolution can be thought of as an antecedent to the French Revolution.
For the last two centuries the French Revolution and its causes have been explained , interpreted and reinterpreted in many ways by many people and thinkers.

Some events may seem surprising or unexpected , but the big picture and the general structure of historical events can be analyzed , found and interpreted.

As an additional example , I think there is no need to refer to black swans in relation to the 2016 presidential elections in the USA . Things and events to come can be viewed objectively by analyzing past historical events the right way , impartially and coherently , and by making the right and correct connections .

I also think specific patterns , regularities , and connections between important events can be found in human history for (definite) periods extending over centuries and even millennia.