I read a lot , and I try to analyze events objectively. I wrote an answer on June 18 , 2016 on quora.com outlining a general rational method to analyze historical events , and I gave reasons why Donald Trump would be elected president . The link to that answer can be followed by clicking here . I added an update to the answer in November , but the initial publication date can be seen in the answer log .
I also wrote an answer on November 9 , 2016 , reminding of the answer I wrote in June and giving additional explanations concerning my point of view and my ideas.
I will present here the two answers I wrote (with a few unessential modifications) , and part of a third answer I wrote .
Here is the first answer of June 18 , 2016:
First of all , I’d like to point out that I’m not involved in politics and I’m not attached to any political ideology , but I’m going to try to give my (objective and concise) opinion about this topic .
Based upon my many readings and my personal reflections , I think an objective study of historical events can be conducted , and the principles of the scientific method can even be applied to History , if it is done the right way .
I think Trump would be the president of the USA based mainly on two reasons or two notions:
- The notion that (along with historical progress and evolution) there are “periodicities” , regularities , and exact correspondences or analogies between (human) historical events over periods of two thousand years or two millennia , which is why I would call them bi-millenary correspondences .
- The notion of inversion or transmutation of values , more or less related to Nietzsche’s ideas .
For the first notion , there is an exact correspondence between the Roman emperorand Trump . According to the Wikipedia article about Claudius (who ruled from 41 to 54 CE) , it was reported that “at one time he expelled the Jews from Rome, probably because the Jews within the city caused continuous disturbances[…]” and the Wikipedia note states : “There is some debate about what actually happened. It is reported by Suetonius and in Acts (18:2), Cassius Dio minimizes the event and Josephus—who was reporting on Jewish events—does not mention it at all. Some scholars hold that it didn’t happen, while others have only a few missionaries expelled for the short term.” This event corresponds to Trump’s call to ban Muslims from the USA .
For the second notion , it is known that Claudius was the first Roman Emperor to be born outside Italy . This is to be contrasted with Trump’s birther ideas or birther issue , insisting that the president should be a natural born citizen of the United States .
These explanations or ideas may seem new or strange or “exotic”, but I think I have a point here .
So we’ll have to wait for the verification of what I have stated above with the unfolding of future events .
Update (November 9, 2016) :
Trump has been elected president. It looks like the unfolding of events has provided an empirical or “experimental” verification of what I had written about five months before the November elections. In fact this answer was written on June 18, 2016.
Here is my second answer , published November 9 , 2016:
I think a statement such as “I told you so” is in order here. I wrote an answer on June 18, 2016 about why Trump would win the November presidential elections. Not that I follow any politician, I’m not attached to any particular political person, political party, or political philosophy.
I presented or outlined a general method based on the proper , correct , and rational analysis of current events and of related specific past historical events (which took place too millennia ago) , and a way to find connections , correspondences and analogies with current events , and to reasonably , objectively anticipate future important events. This method may need more explanations, refinements, or elaborations, but I think it is correct and valid. I’d consider that the unfolding of recent events can be regarded as an empirical or experimental proof or verification of what I had stated earlier in June.
There is no need to refer to the concept of black swan or to similar notions or interpretations, or to say “this is implausible, nobody could have seen or known this”. Randomness and “black swans” are usually a reflection of our ignorance of all the relevant and/or necessary data and facts. The supporters of the winner don’t subscribe to the implausibility or to the black swan narrative and would say that they knew all along he would win the elections. However they represent one side or one of the sides of the issue at hand, so their discourse is not unbiased or dispassionate and is not based on objective and neutral analysis.
I think the impartial , adequate , accurate analysis , study and comparison of historical events and the detection of patterns, regularities , relations and connections between these events can generally help explain the past and also provide insights and valid anticipations of significant future events.
Moreover , The general idea of using scientific methodology (to try to find out who will be the next president for example) is not the core problem , the essential requirement is to use and apply something such as the rules or principles of the scientific method the right way , and to use the right , correct , accurate , adequate, verifiable methodology .